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  • Forex / Форекс - SIA Real Trade
    impact on the economic performance into 2013 The euro erased losses after the data were released trading at 1 3235 at 12 28 p m in Brussels up less than 0 1 percent on the day The Stoxx Europe 600 Index SXXP dropped 0 8 percent to 264 74 Banks Reserve Requirements A gauge of euro region manufacturing rose to 49 in February from 48 8 in January Markit said A measure of services fell to 49 4 from 50 4 In China the preliminary 49 7 reading of a manufacturing index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit compared with a final 48 8 in January China is cutting banks reserve requirements from Feb 24 to support an economic expansion that Nomura Holdings Inc estimates may be 7 5 percent this quarter the least since the global financial crisis In today s report a measure of export orders fell to an eight month low underscoring Commerce Minister Chen Deming s Feb 9 caution that the government is not optimistic about the outlook for trade after a decline in shipments in January External Weakness With a meaningful rebound of domestic demand not in sight external weakness is starting to bite adding more downside risks to growth said Qu Hongbin a Hong Kong based economist for HSBC The central bank should step up policy easing as inflation pressures continue to ease The gloomy economic news in Asia and Europe contrasted with the U S where sales of previously owned houses probably rose in January to the highest level since May 2010 adding to signs the housing market is regaining its footing economists said before a report today Purchases climbed 1 1 percent a fourth straight monthly increase to a 4 66 million annual rate from a 4 61 million pace in December

    Original URL path: http://realtrade.lv/en/news/?id=1262&c=3 (2013-09-01)
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  • Forex / Форекс - SIA Real Trade
    has now been committed to save Greece Ireland and Portugal with investors predicting the government in Lisbon at least will need more support To tackle future fiscal emergencies and limit contagion officials held out the prospect of boosting their firewall to 750 billion euros from a planned limit of 500 billion euros when a permanent aid fund is paired with the temporary facility starting in July They also cajoled investors into providing more debt relief in an exchange meant to tide Greece past a March bond repayment In return for the new cash Greece signed up to cuts in pensions the minimum wage health care and defense spending as well as layoffs of state employees and asset sales It must implement that austerity with unemployment already topping 20 percent meaning more retrenchment might end up only compounding the debt stress Dangers Substantial The danger of Greece saving itself into economic depression and having to default and exit the common currency zone remains substantial said Christian Schulz an economist at Berenberg Bank in London Jennifer McKeown of Capital Economics Ltd repeated her forecast that Greece will quit the euro by the end of the year The odds that Greece will remain encumbered by debt were exposed by an analysis by European Union and International Monetary Fund experts that highlights what could go wrong with a country unable to grow out of its fiscal travails by devaluing its currency In a worst case scenario the debt may rebound to 160 percent of GDP by 2020 rather than nearing the 120 percent the IMF deems sustainable Given the risks the Greek program may thus remain accident prone with questions about sustainability hanging over it said the report by the so called troika which also includes the European Central Bank Fully Fledged Default The study exposes the difficulties Greece faces in delivering its promises amid a crisis torn economy said Guillaume Menuet an economist at Citigroup in London The country may miss its deficit goals as soon as June and have to prepare for a fully fledged coordinated default by year end he said Joerg Kraemer chief economist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt calculates the debt ratio will rise to 127 percent if annual growth is 0 5 percentage points lower than assumed Greece will find it difficult to shoulder even the reduced debt in the long run if it does not implement far reaching reforms said Kraemer For the second half of the year there is a significant probability that a frustrated EU stops payments to Greece If 2010 s 110 billion euro bailout is anything to go by Greece will struggle to reach its targets Privatizations supposed to reach 19 billion euros by 2015 have so far yielded about a tenth of that amount and Barclays Capital estimates that even with promised fiscal cuts just 16 000 state jobs were shed in the three years through the third quarter of 2011 compared with 466 000 in the private sector Outside Scrutiny In a

    Original URL path: http://realtrade.lv/en/news/?id=1261&c=3 (2013-09-01)
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  • Forex / Форекс - SIA Real Trade
    Leading With Others As Greeks chafe at a perceived German diktat Merkel wants to signal that it s not Germany leading the others it s Germany leading with others Enderlein said This is the message she wants to convey to her European partners That means Merkel is facing down calls for dumping Greece by business leaders such as Commerzbank AG supervisory board chairman Klaus Peter Mueller who said Jan 30 that Greece should be freed of its shackles of the single currency Franz Fehrenbach chief executive officer of German auto parts supplier Robert Bosch GmbH told Manager Magazin on Feb 14 that Greece should be ousted if it doesn t quit voluntarily The chancellor s unyielding stance is prompting the comparisons with Thatcher who famously dismissed criticism of her budget cutting 18 months into her premiership telling members of her Conservative Party in 1980 that the lady s not for turning Tough as Nails Thatcher and Merkel are both tough as nails Gary Smith executive director of the American Academy in Berlin a trans Atlantic research institute said in an interview Both conveyed that they re resolute and not flip floppers Like Thatcher who took on the miners as she sought to clamp down on Britain s trade unions Merkel hasn t shied from confrontation Unlike Thatcher she appeals to Germans because she s cautious modest and discreet Smith said With Merkel at the helm things are calm and Germany is doing well on a global scale What s more the two leaders respective attitudes to Europe couldn t be farther apart Almost a quarter of a century after Thatcher used a speech in the Belgian city of Bruges to warn against a European super state exercising a new dominance from Brussels Merkel is pressing for economic and political union That drive has sidelined the U K as Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron refuses to join the German inspired European budget discipline pact Kohl Protégée Merkel 57 a protégée of former Chancellor Helmut Kohl who grew up in communist East Germany didn t come naturally to building a united Europe the goal of German leaders since the aftermath of World War II At a Christian Democratic party rally last year Merkel accused Spaniards and Portuguese of working too little Kohl who reunited East and West Germany in 1990 against Thatcher s wishes warned in a journal article in September that Germany can t afford to disconnect its future from Europe s Last July Merkel lost her train of thought when a reporter asked her about her passion for Europe What was the question Oh right that passion she said Now Merkel rebuffs national caricatures that pit industrious against lazy Europeans and presents austerity as the best hope of competing in the global economy for EU s 500 million people Lazy Germans There are lazy Germans and there are hard working Germans Merkel said in a Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper interview posted on her party s website Jan 26 We can bury

    Original URL path: http://realtrade.lv/en/news/?id=1260&c=3 (2013-09-01)
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  • Forex / Форекс - SIA Real Trade
    Treasury official wrote in a note to clients yesterday Italian and Spanish bonds continued their advance amid optimism that an agreement is in reach while the euro gained as much as 1 percent to 1 3275 today bringing its climb against the dollar this year to more than 2 percent The yield on the Greek bond due October 2022 declined 30 basis points to 34 09 percent European stocks rose with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index SXXP climbing 0 6 percent to a six month high Merkel Papademos and Italian premier Mario Monti expressed confidence on Feb 17 that ministers will resolve open questions and Papademos flew to Brussels yesterday to facilitate discussions International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde also will participate in the finance ministers talks according to IMF spokesman Gerry Rice Critical Talks Papademos s presence was deemed necessary because immediate coordination is required with Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos according to a Greek Finance Ministry official A final meeting with Greek government officials such as Papademos and Venizelos and the International Institute of Finance could also be required the official said The German Finance Ministry is increasingly optimistic on agreement though some points need to be resolved including a plan for an escrow account to ensure that Greek aid money goes to paying creditors ministry spokeswoman Marianne Kothe said in Berlin Euro officials have reached broad agreement with Greece on the account at this point it s down to technical questions Kothe told reporters As the clock ticks toward March 20 when Greece is due to pay off 14 5 billion euros of maturing debt euro area officials are scrambling to align competing schedules with a private sector bond swap designed to slice about 100 billion euros off Greece s debt Swap Window Officials are targeting a window of Feb 22 to March 9 to complete the swap transaction German lawmakers were told during a briefing last week by government officials The swap would then begin by March 8 at the latest and be completed by March 11 according to state run Athens News Agency A successful debt swap would mean that Greece won t have to repay in full the March 20 bond Still the exchange can only proceed once governments authorize funds to be used in cash or collateral as an incentive to investors The Finnish Finance Ministry said today that final approval for the whole Greek package is likely to come in the week of March 12 Compounding the issue is the role of the ECB and the Greek bonds it has accumulated over the course of the crisis The Frankfurt based central bank is holding talks on exempting Greek bonds in national central banks investment portfolios from a debt restructuring two euro area officials said last week The ECB is swapping its Greek bonds for new ones to ensure that it won t be forced to take losses in any debt restructuring three euro area officials said on Feb 16 The move may

    Original URL path: http://realtrade.lv/en/news/?id=1259&c=3 (2013-09-01)
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  • Forex / Форекс - SIA Real Trade
    m in New York amid optimism Greece will get a bailout CPI estimates of the 82 economists surveyed ranged from increases of 0 1 percent to 0 4 percent Core Prices The so called core measure which excludes more volatile food and energy costs also increased 0 2 percent matching the median forecast The increase in the core gauge followed a 0 1 percent advance in December They were up 2 3 percent for the past 12 months the most since a 2 5 percent increase in the year ended Sept 2008 The price report may underscore Fed ChairmanBen S Bernanke s comments on Feb 7 that central bank officials expected inflation to remain subdued due to the well anchored inflation expectations more stable commodity prices and substantial slack in labor and product markets Household purchases climbed 2 2 percent in 2011 after an increase of 2 percent in 2010 the weakest two year performance of any post World War II expansion Unemployment has held above 8 percent since February 2009 the longest such run since the monthly record keeping began in 1948 Nonetheless the rate is starting to drop reaching a three year low of 8 3 percent in January Stagnant Wages While the labor market is improving paychecks are failing to keep up with even limited inflation Hourly earnings adjusted for prices were unchanged in January and fell 1 percent over the past 12 months today s report showed Energy costs increased 0 2 percent in January from a month earlier as did food costs An increase in gasoline prices was mostly offset by a drop in costs for natural gas The increase in the core measure was driven by rising costs for apparel toys tobacco and medical care Used car and truck prices dropped as did airline

    Original URL path: http://realtrade.lv/en/news/?id=1258&c=3 (2013-09-01)
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  • Forex / Форекс - SIA Real Trade
    on the budget cuts Juncker said Meeting Conditions Greece has now met all conditions set by the European Union and International Monetary Fund for the lifeline Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told reporters in Athens after the 3 1 2 hour telephone consultations Before the call Finland and the Netherlands had appealed for the postponement of a new program until elections as early as April produce a full time Greek government that replaces the caretaker administration one European official said In that scenario the euro area would arrange a bridge loan to get Greece past the March payment the official said Ultimately the question is whether Greece has political will to sort out their economy and fulfill the conditions Finnish Finance Minister Jutta Urpilainen told reporters in Helsinki yesterday Juncker s post call statement didn t address the question of a possible interim loan It indicated that there is no accord yet on a proposal to set up an escrow account to ensure that the aid money goes to paying creditors Markets Tensions over Greece pushed the euro down 0 4 percent to 1 3012 at 8 20 a m in Brussels Futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 Index slid 1 percent A delayed decision on public support for Greece until after the still unscheduled election would risk snagging a separate component of the package a bond exchange by private investors designed to wipe 100 billion euros off of Greece s debt While some German finance officials see the merits of putting back approval of a multi year aid program until after the Greek election Chancellor Angela Merkel hasn t made her stance clear yet the European official said Buoyed by an uptick in opinion polls unemployment at a two decade low of 6 7 percent and European backing for a German designed fiscal discipline treaty Merkel has warned in recent weeks of the risks of letting Greece default or pushing it out of the euro Merkel s Concern The leader of Europe s dominant economy is also under pressure from Italy s new prime minister Mario Monti who has emerged as the spokesman for economically depressed southern European countries struggling against German imposed austerity A former European commissioner who leads an interim government in Rome the nonpartisan Monti said Greece is being put under unbearable strains and traced the origins of the crisis to moves by prior German and French leaders to soften the euro s deficit rules The very tough approach being taken toward Greece today may lead us to regard this as being excessive and it probably is Monti told the European Parliament yesterday in Strasbourg France There are no good guys and bad guys We all need to feel jointly responsible Sarkozy s Campaign By twinning fiscal savings with an economic overhaul in Italy Monti has earned respect in Germany just as Merkel s chief crisis management partner French President Nicolas Sarkozy plunges into a re election campaign that polls indicate he will lose Greece has squandered

    Original URL path: http://realtrade.lv/en/news/?id=1257&c=3 (2013-09-01)
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  • Forex / Форекс - SIA Real Trade
    for January said Dariusz Kowalczyk a senior economist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong It may suggest a high likelihood of a policy move in February or March We expect a reserve ratio cut to be one of the measures announced soon Kowalczyk said officials may also enact additional pro growth measures such as boosting lending and government spending and lowering taxes Refraining from Cut The central bank has refrained from lowering the reserve ratio since a cut in December by 50 basis points to 21 percent that was the first reduction in three years Tim Condon chief Asia economist at ING Financial Markets in Singapore said he s surprised there haven t been any more reserve ratio cuts this year and he still forecasts reductions of 200 basis points for 2012 Monetary policy has turned more accommodative at the end of 2011 and that appears to be persisting in 2012 he said The Ministry of Commerce is studying measures for stabilizing foreign trade growth through easing funding pressures on companies boosting fiscal policy support and keeping the local currency s exchange rate stable Minister Chen Deming said during a trip to eastern Anhui province according to a statement on the ministry s website yesterday Chen said last week in a written response to questions from Bloomberg News that January exports cannot make us optimistic Exports Imports Drop China s exports and imports fell for the first time in two years in January and new lending last month was the lowest for a January in five years government reports showed last week adding to signs growth is weakening Overseas shipments fell 0 5 percent and imports declined a more than forecast 15 3 percent from a year earlier in a month that had four fewer working days than January

    Original URL path: http://realtrade.lv/en/news/?id=1255&c=3 (2013-09-01)
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  • Forex / Форекс - SIA Real Trade
    plan in the early hours of today as rioters battled police and set fire to buildings in downtown Athens By siding with Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos to back the austerity measures legislators probably did enough to win the second bailout on Feb 15 said Christian Schulz senior economist at Berenberg Bank in London Whether or not the vote will reduce Greek uncertainties for long is a very open question Schulz said Pending approval of the bailout by euro finance chiefs this week attention will shift to national capitals Merkel plans to ask German lawmakers to vote on it Feb 27 Other euro governments including the Netherlands and Finland have yet to schedule a date for parliamentary votes There still is a risk that the whole process derails but I think we ll get the package together by the summit of European leaders on March 1 Carsten Brzeski senior economist at ING Group in Brussels said by phone Falling Short Still German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told German lawmakers on Feb 10 that Greece was set to miss deficit goals Schaeuble said that current plans would leave Greece s debt as high as 136 percent of gross domestic product by 2020 according to two people in the meeting That compares with the 120 percent foreseen in the second bailout down from about 160 percent last year Greek political leaders must provide written assurances of their support for measures and policies in return for new financing for the country government spokesman Pantelis Kapsis told reporters in Athens More than two years after the debt crisis emerged in Greece European leaders face international pressure to do more to tackle the source of contagion that threatens to drag down the global economy Group of 20 nations have signaled they won t reach a

    Original URL path: http://realtrade.lv/en/news/?id=1253&c=3 (2013-09-01)
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